I propose the Franksummers3ba Equation for the number of Alien First Contacts by direct visitation that humans will experience on earth and in the possible colonies within our own solar system. It is based on the Drake Equation.
N = ( R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fs • fe• fb • fr • fp • fs •Ll )M
- N= The number of civilizations which might arrive at Earth and contact or confront humans here or in surrounding future colonies relatively unannounced.
- R* =The rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life.
- fp = The fraction of those stars with planetary systems.
- ne = The number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life.
- fl = The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears.
- fi = The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges.
- fs = The fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that develop space travel .
- fe=The fraction of those civilizations that choose to locate planets like ours.
- fb=The fraction of those civilizations that build and launch interstellar craft: finding the political resources and will to do so as well as the wealth.
- fr= The fraction of those civilizations which develop individual craft or groups of craft capable of reaching our solar system from their launch point.
- fp= The fraction of those civilizations which either reach a high percentage of detected planets in range or which highly prioritize reaching a planet like ours.
- • fs= The fraction of those civilizations which use stealth or secrecy beyond our capacities of remote detection and which find it preferable to avoid electromagnetic or similar communication at a distance in advance of first contact.
- Ll = The length of time such civilizations launch such craft divided by the period of time humans survive in this solar system.
- NOTE: the brackets indicate that this is the product which gives us a number for contact from any launch site even though the next operation is also mathematically identical multiplication.
- M=The rate at which civilizations of this sort reproduce autonomous launch sites which are in these parameter or civilizations enter these parameters which are otherwise disqualified by one or more factors through creating autonomous launch sites.