Well it has been a few days and we have not heard anything from NASA about how much water they did or did not discover with the LCROSS mission. Certainly some of that early morning data seemed compatible with just about anything one could be tempted to think. Given that most of us did not record the transmissions as I can assure you that I did not. We had no blazing tower of ejecta that all the telescopes could photograph well.
Assuming the conspiracy theorists are not right and that the reason there were no good pictures is not because nothing happened. Likewise believing that the money was used on this mission and not all diverted to something horrible then here are a few facts I picked up on:
1. There was a sodium flash at the time of impact.
2. There was a drop off in the degree of luminosity and and a drop in some other things indicating reflectivity after the impact.
3.The shepherding spacecraft traveled well through the ejecta cloud.
4.The Chandraayan discovered hydration cycle must be considered good data until shown otherwise.
All of this data is compatible with water which will create vapor features which obscure reflective particles, will suspend and dissolve sodium and hold it in relative stability and would in my opinion tend to diminish the chance of unpredictable particles exceeding the limits of tolerance of the shepherding spacecraft. Of course there was so little data in that first press conference that it could be compatible with a set of crystalline salt rocks and metals reacting in some mutually destructive way or almost anything else.
That is why we all want to know who are into this sort of thing. Hey NASA what did you find?
For what I was thinking before they hit the Moon go to the post from that time:
I think that this is a very important moment in our history whether we can perceive that or not. I hope they find water but most of all I hope they provide good and ample data.